To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. Click on the to see the other two. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Apply today! Read the Analysis >. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. [16], In 2022, 31 U.S. House races did not have major party opposition. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. The party gained a net of nine districts. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. Colorado. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. 26th February 2023. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. All rights reserved. By Leke Baiyewu. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Analysis>. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. You can also view these ratings as a table. Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell He withdrew before the runoff. Alaska. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate.